Chinese imports of distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) will fall 50% in 2016 compared to 2015, according to a recent forecast by analyst firm CCM.
China imported increasing amounts of DDGS in the 2012–2015 period, but volumes slumped going into 2016. In January to September DDGS imports were 2.7 million tonnes, a year-on-year drop of 48.74%. In September alone imports were down 71% on the year and 46% on the previous month.
According to CCM there are two factors behind the decline -- the falling price of corn in China (DDGS is a substitute for feed-used corn) and anti-dumping measures on imported DDGS from the USA.
The analyst firm says the fourth quarter of 2016 remains tough for DDGS imports due to increasing domestic DDGS supply as winter is a busier season for alcohol factories and as the government started providing subsidies for corn deep processing enterprises in Jilin Province in November. In addition, the aquaculture industry has less demand for feed in winter, which could have some effect on the DDGS market.
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Chinese imports of DDGS forecast to fall 50% in 2016