Brazil is shifting its corn strategy. As domestic demand from ethanol and livestock sectors surges, more corn is staying in the country — pushing prices higher and reshaping the global corn trade.

Corn Ethanol Industry Expands Rapidly

Brazil’s Center-West region has become a hub for corn ethanol production. From just 406,000 metric tons processed in 2015/16, volumes soared to 18.3 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season — about 15% of the national harvest, projected at 122.7 million tons.

Livestock Sector Drives Consumption

Corn consumption in Brazil has risen by 53% over the past decade, reaching 88 million tons. Of this, 64.5 million tons are used for livestock feed and 23.5 million tons for food, seed, and industrial uses — primarily ethanol.

Exports Slow Down

Corn exports are projected at 44 million metric tons, down nearly 20% from the peak two years ago. This reflects reduced demand from China and stronger competition from the U.S., Argentina, and Ukraine.

Corn Ethanol’s Share Grows

Since 2017, Brazil’s corn ethanol industry has taken off. The country now has 25 operational plants, with 15 more under construction. Production is expected to reach 8.2 billion liters in 2024/25 and climb to 10 billion liters — about one-third of total ethanol output — by 2025/26.

Prices Surge, Policy Supports Growth

Corn prices in Paranaguá hit a three-year high in March, rising over 23% month-over-month to $6.57 per bushel. A planned increase in the ethanol blending mandate from 27% to 30% could add 1.3 billion liters to annual ethanol demand.

Global Impact

With more corn used domestically, Brazil may export less — reducing global supply and creating openings for U.S. exporters. Brazilian farmers, encouraged by price stability, are planting more and selling in advance. Corn is no longer a secondary crop — it’s now a pillar of Brazil’s agricultural economy.

 

Data Source and References

Arantes, S. M., and Bachion, L. C. “Como o milho vem contribuindo para ampliar a produção de energia sem comprometer a segurança alimentar?” Insper Agro Global. 2025. Available online: https://agro.insper.edu.br/agro-in-data/artigos/como-o-milho-vem-contribuindo-para-ampliar-a-producao-de-energia-sem-comprometer-a-seguranca-alimentar.

Cepea/USP. Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics of “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture at University of São Paulo. Survey of Agricultural Prices. 2025 https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/consultas-ao-banco-de-dados-do-site.aspx

Colussi, J., N. Paulson, G. Schnitkey, C. Zulauf and J. Baltz. “Potential for Crop Expansion in Brazil Based on Pastureland and Double-Cropping.” farmdoc daily (14):69, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 9, 2024.

Colussi, J., N. Paulson, J. Janzen and C. Zulauf. “U.S. Dominance in Corn Exports on the Wane Due to Brazilian Competition.” farmdoc daily (14):50, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, March 12, 2024.

Colussi, J., N. Paulson, G. Schnitkey and J. Baltz. “Brazil Emerges as Corn-Ethanol Producer with Expansion of Second Crop Corn.” farmdoc daily (13):120, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, June 30, 2023.

Conab, National Supply Company. Crops Time Series. Total Corn Production. Brasília, Brazil. April 2025. https://www.conab.gov.br/info-agro/safras/serie-historica-das-safras

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service. April 2025. Production, Supply, and Distribution Online. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/