The E20 ethanol blend reaching a 20% market share in the EU by 2030 would lead to a 58% increase in ethanol demand, a new report by E4tech shows.

The additional volume of ethanol required under such as scenario would be 3.2 billion litres above the 2017 supply volumes.

Under a high demand scenario, where E20’s market share is 100%, ethanol supply will have to increase by 11.5 billion from 2017 volumes, E4tech calculates. It noted that even if that demand was met by ethanol produced from crops, the estimated crop cap set by the EU’s revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) would not be exceeded.

According to the report, in 2017 the EU had 2.9 billion litres of unused ethanol production capacity, which could be brought on stream to meet increasing demand in the future. The other options include new first- and second-generation ethanol production capacities and imports.

The ethanol industry says E20 is the natural next step for the EU to lower transport emissions. For now, E5 is the most widely spread blend. In November, the number of countries using E10 was nine, while in early 2020 Slovakia, Hungary and Lithuania are expected to join the list.


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